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		<title>Strong petchems inventory build-up in China limits trade</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 10:35:40 +0000</pubDate>
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FocusStrong petchems inventory build-up in China limits trade

17 March 2010 07:10&#160;&#160;[Source: ICIS news]
By Pearl Bantillo and Mahua Chakravarty 
SINGAPORE (ICIS news)&#8211;A buying frenzy of petrochemical products at the start of the year filled up China’s storage tanks, forcing trade to slow this month, industry sources said on Wednesday. 
The much sought-after bonded warehouses were also [...]]]></description>
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<h1 id=Title><span class=ArticleSlug>Focus</span>Strong petchems inventory build-up in China limits trade</h2>
<p><span id="more-67"></span>
<p id=Info><span id=PubDate>17 March 2010 07:10</span>&nbsp;&nbsp;<span id=Source>[Source: ICIS news]</span></p>
<p>By <strong><st1:PLACE w:st="on">Pearl</st1:PLACE> Bantillo</strong> and <strong>Mahua Chakravarty</strong> </p>
<p><img style="WIDTH: 180px; FLOAT: right; HEIGHT: 120px" border=0 alt="" src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-66ff3c1e844f567a3af75585cc76419f_yourfile2.jpg">SINGAPORE (ICIS news)&#8211;A buying frenzy of petrochemical products at the start of the year filled up China’s storage tanks, forcing trade to slow this month, industry sources said on Wednesday. </p>
<p>The much sought-after bonded warehouses were also almost full in Taicang, Jiangyin, Taizhou in eastern <st1:COUNTRY-REGION w:st="on"><st1:PLACE w:st="on">China</st1:PLACE></st1:COUNTRY-REGION>, while the same problem beset ports in the southern parts of the country, they said.</p>
<p>The products were stuck in tanks as earlier expectations of higher prices in March and strong demand post the Lunar New Year holidays in late February failed to materialise, market sources said.</p>
<p>Demand was steady while prices of select products had started to fall due to high availability of the material, market sources said.</p>
<p>For <a class=infusionLink href="http://www.icis.com/v2/chemicals/9076548/Toluene.html" omd="zodJump('http://widgets.zibb.com/images/_jump.gif?tag=InfusionJS&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.icis.com%2Fv2%2Fchemicals%2F9076548%2FToluene.html&amp;gsid=13058235&amp;entitytypeid=6&amp;lid=9076548&amp;title=Toluene&amp;intref=infusion&amp;variantName=toluene&amp;zodid=70')" alt="Toluene">toluene</a>, inventory levels in eastern <st1:COUNTRY-REGION w:st="on"><st1:PLACE w:st="on">China</st1:PLACE></st1:COUNTRY-REGION> were at a six-year high at 150,000 tonnes in recent weeks, local traders said.</p>
<p>Trading of the material had considerably slowed, with some sellers scouting for Chinese buyers but no bids surfaced, market sources said.</p>
<p>“I don’t know if there is a buyer on CFR basis because getting tank space is an issue these days,” said a local trader. </p>
<p>Within the domestic market, toluene buyers preferred to purchase in smaller lots due to ample availability, said local traders. </p>
<p>In eastern <st1:COUNTRY-REGION w:st="on"><st1:PLACE w:st="on">China</st1:PLACE></st1:COUNTRY-REGION>, ex-tank values of toluene slipped to CNY6,700-6,750/tonne ($981-988/tonne) ex-tank seen on Tuesday from around CNY7,200-7,250/tonne on 22 February, according to data from global chemical market intelligence service, <a href="http://www.icispricing.com/" target=_new>ICIS&nbsp;pricing</a>.</p>
<p>Isomer and solvent grade xylene inventory levels were estimated at 100,000 tonnes in eastern <st1:COUNTRY-REGION w:st="on">China</st1:COUNTRY-REGION>, while another 35,000 tonnes were lying in tanks in southern <st1:COUNTRY-REGION w:st="on"><st1:PLACE w:st="on">China</st1:PLACE></st1:COUNTRY-REGION>, traders said.</p>
<p><a class=infusionLink href="http://www.icis.com/v2/chemicals/9074855/Acetone.html" omd="zodJump('http://widgets.zibb.com/images/_jump.gif?tag=InfusionJS&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.icis.com%2Fv2%2Fchemicals%2F9074855%2FAcetone.html&amp;gsid=13058184&amp;entitytypeid=6&amp;lid=9074855&amp;title=Acetone&amp;intref=infusion&amp;variantName=acetone&amp;zodid=70')" alt="Acetone">Acetone</a> inventory in eastern China was estimated at around 35,000-40,000 tonnes this week, about four times bigger than what it was before the Lunar New Year holidays and has been exerting downward pressure on prices, market sources said.</p>
<p>Spot prices for acetone softened $10-20/tonne to $930-1,030/tonne CFR (cost and freight) <st1:COUNTRY-REGION w:st="on"><st1:PLACE w:st="on">China</st1:PLACE></st1:COUNTRY-REGION> last Friday, according to global chemical market intelligence service ICIS pricing.</p>
<p>For <a class=infusionLink href="http://www.icis.com/v2/chemicals/9076017/Isopropanol.html" omd="zodJump('http://widgets.zibb.com/images/_jump.gif?tag=InfusionJS&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.icis.com%2Fv2%2Fchemicals%2F9076017%2FIsopropanol.html&amp;gsid=13058207&amp;entitytypeid=6&amp;lid=9076017&amp;title=Isopropanol&amp;intref=infusion&amp;variantName=isopropanol&amp;zodid=70')" alt="Isopropanol">isopropanol</a>, stocks in eastern <st1:COUNTRY-REGION w:st="on">China</st1:COUNTRY-REGION> were at their highest level this year at more than 10,000 tonnes, while inventory level in southern <st1:COUNTRY-REGION w:st="on"><st1:PLACE w:st="on">China</st1:PLACE></st1:COUNTRY-REGION> was close to 7,000-8,000 tonnes, industry sources said.</p>
<p>Chinese domestic prices were discussed at CNY10,200-10,400/tonne ex-tank in the east, while in the south, prices were talked at CNY10,200/tonne ex-tank</p>
<p>Meanwhile, a shortage of migrant workers may be partly to blame for the slow activities at some factories in southern <st1:COUNTRY-REGION w:st="on"><st1:PLACE w:st="on">China</st1:PLACE></st1:COUNTRY-REGION> right after the Lunar New Years, some market players said.</p>
<p>Some people working at factories of consumer goods could have shifted to the <a href="http://www.icis.com/Articles/2010/03/02/9338928/Labour-shortages-in-China-to-curb-demand-for-styrenic.html" target=_new>construction&nbsp;and infrastructure sector</a> that offers better incentives, industry sources said.</p>
<p>Ramping up operations at southern <st1:COUNTRY-REGION w:st="on"><st1:PLACE w:st="on">China</st1:PLACE></st1:COUNTRY-REGION> manufacturing facilities, which should boost demand for petrochemicals, could not push through given a shortage of workforce.</p>
<p><em>With contributions from Heng Hui, Liu Xin and Ong Sheau Ling</em></p>
<p>($1 = CNY6.83)</p>
<p><em>Please visit the complete </em><a href="http://www.icis.com/v2/directory/default.aspx" target=_new><em>ICIS&nbsp;plants and projects database</em></a><em> <br />To discuss issues facing the chemical industry go to </em><a href="http://www.icis.com/icisconnect/" target=_new><em>ICIS&nbsp;connect</em></a><br /><em>Read John Richardson and Malini Hariharan’s blog – </em><a href="http://www.icis.com/blogs/asian-chemical-connections/" target=_new><em>Asian&nbsp;Chemical Connections</em></a></p>
<p><span id=Author>By: <a href="mailto:icisnews.asia@icis.com">Pearl Bantillo </a></span><br /><span id=Author>+65 6780 4359</span><br /><span class=noindex></p>
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		<title>Using Symbolic Gradients for Optimization</title>
		<link>http://www.chemapp.com/using-symbolic-gradients-for-optimization.html</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 11:38:14 +0000</pubDate>
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MATLAB Digest &#8211; March 2010
Optimization Using Symbolic Derivatives
      
View       PDF
By Alan Weiss
Most Optimization Toolbox™ solvers run faster and more accurately when       your objective and constraint function files include derivative       calculations. Some solvers [...]]]></description>
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<div class=article_offer>MATLAB Digest &#8211; March 2010</div>
<h2>Optimization Using Symbolic Derivatives</h2>
<p>      <span id="more-65"></span>
<div class=pdf><a       href="http://www.mathworks.com/mason/tag/proxy.html?dataid=12460">View       PDF</a></div>
<p>By <a href="mailto:Alan.Weiss@mathworks.com">Alan Weiss</a></p>
<p>Most Optimization Toolbox™ solvers run faster and more accurately when       your objective and constraint function files include derivative       calculations. Some solvers also benefit from second derivatives, or       Hessians. While calculating a derivative is straightforward, it is also       quite tedious and error-prone. Calculating second derivatives is even more       tedious and fraught with opportunities for error. How can you get your       solver to run faster and more accurately without the pain of computing       derivatives manually?</p>
<p>This article demonstrates how to ease the calculation and use of       gradients using Symbolic Math Toolbox™. The techniques described here are       applicable to almost any optimization problem where the objective or       constraint functions can be defined analytically. This means that you can       use them if your objective and constraint functions are not simulations or       black-box functions.</p>
<h3>Running a Symbolically Defined Optimization</h3>
<p>Suppose we want to minimize the function x + y + cosh(x – 1.1y) +       sinh(z/4) over the region defined by the implicit equation z2 = sin(z –       x2y2), –1 ≤ x ≤ 1, –1 ≤ y ≤ 1, 0 ≤ z ≤ 1.</p>
<p>The region is shown in Figure 1. </p>
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<td vAlign=top><a             href="http://www.mathworks.com/company/newsletters/digest/2010/mar/images/gh_fig1_wl.jpg"><img             alt="Figure 1. Region defined by the implicit equation z2 = sin(z – x2y2), –1 ≤ x ≤ 1, –1 ≤ y ≤ 1, 0 ≤ z ≤1. Plot created in the Symbolic Math Toolbox notesbook interface."             src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-3e0fd7a4d47b0c07bcbcfd2ddcd85aae_gh_fig1_w1.jpg"             width=300 height=200></a></td>
<td vAlign=top><em class=caption>Figure 1. Surface plot created in             the Symbolic Math Toolbox notebook interface showing the region             defined by the implicit equation z2 = sin(z – x2y2), –1 ≤ x ≤ 1, –1             ≤ y ≤ 1, 0 ≤ z ≤1. Click on image to see enlarged view.         </em></td>
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<p>The <tt>fmincon</tt> solver from Optimization Toolbox solves nonlinear       optimization problems with nonlinear constraints. To formulate our problem       for <tt>fmincon</tt>, we first write the objective and constraint       functions symbolically.</p>
<p><img style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px"       alt="Figure 2. Generating and running an optimization problem from symbolic expressions."       src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-3e0fd7a4d47b0c07bcbcfd2ddcd85aae_gh_fig21.jpg"       width=572 height=176> </p>
<p>We then generate function handles for numerical computation with       <tt>matlabFunction</tt> from Symbolic Math Toolbox. </p>
<p>The returned output structure shows that it took <tt>fmincon</tt> 20       iterations and 99 function evaluations to solve the problem. The solution       point x (the yellow sphere in the plot in Figure 3) is       <tt>[-0.8013;-0.6122;0.4077</tt>.</p>
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<td vAlign=top><a             href="http://www.mathworks.com/company/newsletters/digest/2010/mar/images/gh_fig3_wl.jpg"><img             alt="Figure 3. Constraint set and solution point."             src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-3e0fd7a4d47b0c07bcbcfd2ddcd85aae_gh_fig3_w1.jpg"             width=300 height=200></a></td>
<td vAlign=top><em class=caption>Figure 3. Constraint set and             solution point. Click on image to see enlarged view.</em>         </td>
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<h3>Solving the Problem with Gradients</h3>
<p>To include derivatives of the objective and constraint functions in the       calculation, we simply perform three steps:</p>
<ol>
<li>Compute the derivatives using the Symbolic Math Toolbox         <tt>jacobian</tt> function.
<li>Generate objective and constraint functions that include the         derivatives with <tt>matlabFunction</tt>
<li>Set <tt>fmincon</tt> options to use the derivatives. </li>
</ol>
<p>The following code shows how to include gradients for the example.</p>
<p><img style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px"       alt="Figure 4. Using jacobian and matlabFunction to compute the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions."       src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-3e0fd7a4d47b0c07bcbcfd2ddcd85aae_gh_fig41.jpg"       width=506 height=229></p>
<p>Notice that the <tt>jacobian</tt> function is followed by .&#8217;. This       transpose ensures that <tt>gradw</tt> and <tt>gradobj</tt> are column       vectors, the preferred orientation for Optimization Toolbox solvers.       <tt>matlabFunction</tt> creates a function handle for evaluating both the       function and its gradient. Notice, too, that we were able to calculate the       gradient of the constraint function even though the function is       implicit.</p>
<p>The output structure shows that <tt>fmincon</tt> computed the solution       in 20 iterations, just as it did without gradients. <tt>fmincon</tt> with       gradients evaluated the nonlinear functions at 36 points, compared to 99       points without gradients.</p>
<h3>Including the Hessian</h3>
<p>A Hessian function lets us solve the problem even more efficiently. For       the interior-point algorithm, we write a function that is the Hessian of       the Lagrangian. This means that if ƒ is the objective function, c is the       vector of nonlinear inequality constraints, ceq is the vector of nonlinear       equality constraints, and λ is the vector of associated Lagrange       multipliers, the Hessian H is</p>
<p><img       src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-3e0fd7a4d47b0c07bcbcfd2ddcd85aae_gh_formula11.jpg"       width=244 height=34></p>
<p>∇2u represents the matrix of second derivatives with respect to x of       the function u.</p>
<p><tt>fmincon</tt> generates the Lagrange multipliers in a MATLAB®       structure. The relevant multipliers are <tt>lambda.ineqnonlin</tt> and       <tt>lambda.eqnonlin</tt>, corresponding to indices i and j in the equation       for H. We include multipliers in the Hessian function, and then run the       optimization<sup>1</sup>.</p>
<p><img style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px"       alt="Figure 5. Including the Hessian function and running the optimization."       src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-3e0fd7a4d47b0c07bcbcfd2ddcd85aae_gh_fig51.jpg"       width=488 height=202></p>
<p>The output structure shows that including a Hessian results in fewer       iterations (10 instead of 20), a lower function count (11 instead of 36),       and a better first-order optimality measure (2e-8 instead of 8e-8).</p>
<p><!-- image table starts --><!-- image table ends --><br />
<hr />
<p><sup>1</sup> For nonlinear equality constraints in Optimization Toolbox       version 9b or earlier, you must subtract, not add, the Lagrange       multiplier. See <a       href="http://www.mathworks.com/support/bugreports/566464">bug       report</a>.</p>
<div class=resources>
<h3>Products Used </h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/matlab/">MATLAB®</a>
<li><a         href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/optimization/">Optimization         Toolbox™</a>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/symbolic/">Symbolic Math         Toolbox™</a> </li>
</ul>
<h3>For More Information</h3>
<ul>
<li>Example: <a         href="http://www.mathworks.com/symbolic-math-functions">Using Symbolic         Math Toolbox Functions to Calculate Gradients and Hessians</a>
<li>Demo: <a href="http://www.mathworks.com/optimization-solvers">Using         Symbolic Mathematics with Optimization Toolbox Solvers</a>       </li>
</ul>
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		<title>Basel II Compliance and Risk Management Analysis: Calculating Economic Capital</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 11:36:10 +0000</pubDate>
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MATLAB Digest &#8211; March 2010
Basel II Compliance and Risk Management Analysis: Calculating Economic       Capital 
      
By Marco Folpmers, CapgeminiSend e-mail to Steve Wilcockson
Economic capital (EC), the amount of capital that an organization must       set aside to offset potential [...]]]></description>
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<h2>MATLAB Digest &#8211; March 2010</h2>
<h2>Basel II Compliance and Risk Management Analysis: Calculating Economic       Capital </h2>
<p>      <span id="more-58"></span>
<p>By Marco Folpmers, Capgemini<br />Send e-mail to <a       href="mailto:Steve.Wilcockson@mathworks.co.uk">Steve Wilcockson</a></p>
<p>Economic capital (EC), the amount of capital that an organization must       set aside to offset potential losses, is a key metric for many European       banks and financial institutions. It is also a central requirement of       Pillar 2 of the Basel II regulatory framework. While Capgemini and many of       its clients view EC as the best measure of risk inherent in a portfolio,       calculating EC is not a straightforward analytical exercise. Portfolios       heavily weighted in a particular sector, for example, carry a significant       amount of concentration risk, complicating EC analysis.</p>
<p>Using MATLAB®, Capgemini has developed a process for calculating EC       that takes portfolio concentration into account. The process involves four       main steps:</p>
<ul>
<li>Gathering inputs, including information about individual loans in         the portfolio
<li>Preprocessing the data
<li>Running Monte Carlo simulations to estimate portfolio loss
<li>Presenting the results </li>
</ul>
<p>We chose MATLAB because its matrix-based infrastructure is ideal for       organizing the kinds of data that we deal with and the operations that are       applied to this data, including the linear algebra operations that are       needed for calculating EC. The ability to perform Monte Carlo simulations       in MATLAB gives us another key advantage when modeling EC and other kinds       of risk.</p>
<h3>Gathering Inputs</h3>
<p>Before calculating EC for a loan portfolio, we must determine some       standard risk parameters for each loan in the portfolio. These parameters,       which include probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD),       are often provided in the databases that our clients already use for Basel       II compliance. To enable the calculation of concentration risk, each loan       must also be assigned to a sector—for example, utilities, energy, or       automotive.</p>
<p>Our clients store this information in data warehouses and databases       from a variety of vendors. We use Database Toolbox™ to import the       information into MATLAB from any ODBC/JDBC-compliant database and from       data warehouses such as Teradata. If the data is provided in spreadsheets,       we use a simple call to <tt>xlsread()</tt> to read it in. After importing       the data into MATLAB, we clean it by computing missing values and       identifying outliers.</p>
<h3>Calculating the Correlation Matrix and Default Thresholds</h3>
<p>Because accounting for correlation risk is a key requirement of Basel       II, we must calculate a correlation matrix that reflects the way European       macroeconomic sectors are linked. Based on equity return information in       all these sectors derived from multiple data sources, including Bloomberg       and Dow Jones Stoxx, we calculate correlations between sectors and store       them in a matrix (Figure 1). The matrix is used in the Monte Carlo       simulations to incorporate sector information into the likelihood of       default for each loan.</p>
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<td vAlign=top><a             href="http://www.mathworks.com/company/newsletters/digest/2010/mar/images/cg_figure1_wl.jpg"><img             alt="Figure 1. A correlation matrix for 18 European supersectors."             src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-37471fd751bbb12d083c981811e2b341_cg_figure1_w1.jpg"></a></td>
<td vAlign=top><em class=caption>Figure 1. A correlation matrix for             18 European supersectors. Click on image to see enlarged view.           </em></td>
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<p>Our credit risk models are based on the Merton model, in which an       obligor (a loan customer) defaults when the asset return generated in the       simulation falls below the Z-default threshold. Z-default is defined as       the normal inverse of the PD, which ensures that, in the long run, the       obligor will default as many times as is predicted by the PD.</p>
<h3>Running Monte Carlo Simulations</h3>
<p>We run a Monte Carlo simulation of the portfolio for up to one million       different scenarios. For each scenario (or iteration), we do the       following:</p>
<ul>
<li>Determine which loans default
<li>Estimate the loss for each defaulting loan
<li>Sum the individual loan defaults to find the portfolio loss </li>
</ul>
<p>To identify default loans in the portfolio, a standard normally       distributed random number is determined for each loan. This number depends       on a random number corresponding to its sector, which is common to all       loans in that sector, and an idiosyncratic random number, drawn for each       loan separately. In this way, the health of the sector that the obligor       belongs to influences whether this obligor defaults.</p>
<p>We generate the random numbers per sector using the Statistics Toolbox™       <tt>mvnrnd()</tt> function. These numbers are drawn from a multivariate       normal distribution that takes into account the intersector correlations       (as specified in the correlation matrix). The use of the normal       distribution is not a constraint. Sometimes a multivariate t distribution       (a t copula) is used if the client wants to enhance the level of tail       dependence (the dependence among extreme outcomes of the asset returns) in       the model.</p>
<p>We estimate the loss for a defaulting loan by sampling from a beta       distribution based on the LGD. For example, if the LGD for a loan is 15%,       we set up the parameters α and β of the distribution so that individual       default losses may range from 0% to 100% but in the long run the results       will be 15%. </p>
<p>The final step of each iteration is to total the losses for all loans       in the portfolio and store the results in a loss vector. When all       iterations are complete, the loss vector holds the distribution of losses       for the portfolio. To compute the expected loss (EL) and the EC, we use       two simple MATLAB functions:</p>
<pre>EL = mean(Loss);EC = prctile(Loss,99.95) – EL;</pre>
<p>The example above calculates EC using the 99.95<sup>th</sup>       percentile, the amount of capital needed to protect the bank against       losses that could occur 99.95 percent of the time. The percentile can       change according to the bank’s target credit rating. Since the expected       loss can also be calculated analytically, it is an ideal statistic for       validating the calculations. The alignment of Monte Carlo Expected Loss       with analytical Expected Loss is a standard checkpoint in our routines.</p>
<h3>Presenting the Results</h3>
<p>We validate and present the results to clients using a MATLAB histogram       of the credit loss vector (Figure 2).</p>
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<td vAlign=top><a             href="http://www.mathworks.com/company/newsletters/digest/2010/mar/images/cg_figure2_wl.jpg"><img             alt="Figure 2. A statistical loss distribution for a sample portfolio."             src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-37471fd751bbb12d083c981811e2b341_cg_figure2_w1.jpg"></a></td>
<td vAlign=top><em class=caption>Figure 2. A statistical loss             distribution for a sample portfolio. Click on image to see enlarged             view. </em></td>
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<p>The histogram depicts the level of default correlation, enabling us to       rapidly identify irregularities. If correlations are high, the histogram       tends to be concentrated on the left (low losses) and right (high losses)       ends of the distribution. If correlations are low, the histogram tends to       be heavy in the middle of the distribution.</p>
<p>We use MATLAB to generate reports of the analysis, write the results to       a spreadsheet, or save them in a database, depending on the client’s       needs. In most cases, we provide the MATLAB source code so that the client       can see how the model works and modify it for future calculations.</p>
<p>Many of our clients are MATLAB users. For those who are not, we use       MATLAB Compiler™ to build a standalone application with a graphical user       interface that lets them run sophisticated analysis and simulations       without installing MATLAB.</p>
<h3>Optimizing Performance</h3>
<p>When running Monte Carlo simulations that require hundreds of thousands       of iterations, any step that accelerates a single iteration significantly       reduces simulation time. Wherever possible we use built-in MATLAB       functions, which are typically much faster than those we develop       ourselves. We also take advantage of MATLAB vector and matrix operations       and look for opportunities to move calculations outside the simulation       iterations and to eliminate nested loops. For example, many of our clients       find it useful to allocate EC to each obligor. It is inefficient to use a       new simulation for each obligor, so we made this an optional calculation       of the main EC loop. We can then allocate EC only when we need to, and       speed the calculation of overall EC when we do not.</p>
<p>Another example of code optimization is the declaration of vectors       needed in the simulation loop with the help of a <tt>zeros</tt> or       <tt>ones</tt> statement prior to starting this loop instead of using a       vector that grows during the execution of the simulation loop.</p>
<p>It is advisable to allocate EC to the loan level so that it is clear       how much risk is generated by each loan. The results can be presented       graphically for risk management purposes. For example, in Figure 3 we have       plotted each loan as a circle (‘o’) on the two axes: loan size (or       Exposure at Default) and risk size (or EC Contribution divided by the loan       size).</p>
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<td vAlign=top><a             href="http://www.mathworks.com/company/newsletters/digest/2010/mar/images/cg_figure3_wl.jpg"><img             alt="Figure 3. Risk analysis at the loan level."             src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-37471fd751bbb12d083c981811e2b341_cg_figure3_w1.jpg"></a></td>
<td vAlign=top><em class=caption>Figure 3. Risk analysis at the loan             level. Click on image to see enlarged view. </em></td>
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<p>Traditional risk management is concerned with monitoring large loans.       This is the perspective expressed by the x-axis. With the help of the       contributions, a second perspective can be added on the y-axis: the risk       that each loan carries.</p>
<h3>A Versatile Environment for Modeling Risk</h3>
<p>We use MATLAB to model a number of other risk types. For example, we       model interest rate risk in the banking book (another Pillar 2 Basel II       requirement) to determine the bank’s exposure to adverse movements in       interest rates. Here, instead of multivariate normal distributions, we use       a t copula and generate random observations from a multivariate t       distribution using <tt>mvtrnd()</tt>.</p>
<p>We are seeing an increasing demand from rating agencies and banks for       models of structured credit products, such as collateralized debt       obligations and mortgage-backed securities. MATLAB helps us build and       simulate exceptionally fine-grained models that take into account every       instrument in a reference portfolio.</p>
<div class=resources>
<h3>Products Used </h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/matlab/">MATLAB®</a>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/database/">Database         Toolbox™</a>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/finance/">Financial         Toolbox ™</a>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/compiler/">MATLAB         Compiler™</a>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/statistics/">Statistics         Toolbox™</a> </li>
</ul>
<h3>For More Information</h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/intesa">Measuring Operational Risk         at Intesa Sanpaolo</a>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/portfolio-optimization">Developing         Portfolio Optimization Models</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
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		<title>Developing the World’s Most Advanced Prosthetic Arm Using Model-Based Design &#8211; The MathWorks News &amp; Notes &#8211; 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.chemapp.com/developing-the-world%e2%80%99s-most-advanced-prosthetic-arm-using-model-based-design-the-mathworks-news-notes-2009.html</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 11:33:06 +0000</pubDate>
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Developing the World’s Most Advanced Prosthetic Arm Using Model-Based       Design
      
By James Burck, Michael J. Zeher, Robert Armiger, and James D. Beaty,       Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
Few of us are aware of the complex interactions between neural, [...]]]></description>
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<h2>Developing the World’s Most Advanced Prosthetic Arm Using Model-Based       Design</h2>
<p>      <span id="more-54"></span>
<p>By James Burck, Michael J. Zeher, Robert Armiger, and James D. Beaty,       Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory</p>
<p>Few of us are aware of the complex interactions between neural,       mechanical, and sensory systems required to perform a task as simple as       picking up a ball. To create a prosthetic arm capable of natural movement,       it is necessary to mimic these sophisticated systems, as well as the       intricate interactions between them, using cutting-edge actuators,       sensors, micro&shy;processors, and embedded control software. That was the       challenge we faced when we embarked on the Defense Advanced Research       Projects Agency (DARPA) Revolutionizing Prosthetics program.</p>
<p>Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) is leading a       worldwide team including government agencies, universities, and private       companies whose mission is to develop a prosthetic arm that far exceeds       any prosthetic available today. The final version of the arm will have       control algorithms driven by neural inputs that enable the wearer to move       with the speed, dexterity, and force of a real arm. Advanced sensory       feedback technologies will enable the perception of physical inputs, such       as pressure, force, and temperature.</p>
<p>A key project milestone was the development of the Virtual Integration       Environment (VIE), a complete limb system simulation environment built       using MathWorks tools and Model-Based Design. With a standardized       architecture and well-defined interfaces, the VIE is enabling       collaboration among domain experts at more than two dozen partner       organizations. </p>
<p>Model-Based Design with MathWorks tools was used in other key phases of       development—including modeling the limb mechanics, testing new neural       decode algorithms, and developing and verifying control algorithms.</p>
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<td vAlign=top><em class=caption>The two prototype limbs developed             for the DARPA program use Targeted Muscle Reinnervation, a technique             pioneered by Dr. Todd Kuiken of the Rehabilitation Institute of             Chicago. This technique involves the transfer of residual nerves             from an amputated limb to unused muscle regions near the injury. In             a clinical evaluation, the first prototype enabled a patient to             complete a variety of functional tasks, including pulling a credit             card from a pocket.</em> </td>
<td vAlign=top><img             alt="The two prototype limbs developed for the DARPA program use Targeted Muscle Reinnervation, a technique pioneered by Dr. Todd Kuiken of the Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago. This technique involves the transfer of residual nerves from an amputated limb to unused muscle regions near the injury. In a clinical evaluation, the first prototype enabled a patient to complete a variety of functional tasks, including pulling a credit card from a pocket."             src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-ece6a0239051ad1055e93c4632bf8748_jhu_main1.jpg"></td>
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<h3>Virtual Integration Environment Architecture</h3>
<p>The VIE architecture consists of five main modules: Input, Signal       Analysis, Controls, Plant, and Presentation. </p>
<p>The Input module comprises all the input devices that patients can use       to signal their intent, including surface electromyograms (EMGs), cortical       and peripheral nerve implants, implantable myoelectric sensors (IMESs) and       more conventional digital and analog inputs for switches, joysticks, and       other control sources used by clinicians. The Signal Analysis module       performs signal processing and filtering. More important, this module       applies pattern recognition algorithms that interpret raw input signals to       extract the user’s intent and communicate that intent to the Controls       module. In the Controls module, those commands are mapped to motor signals       that control the individual motors that actuate the limb, hand, and       fingers. </p>
<p>The Plant module consists of a physical model of the limb’s mechanics.       The Presentation module produces a three-dimensional (3D) rendering of the       arm’s movement (Figure 1).</p>
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<td vAlign=top><img             alt="Figure 1. A 3D rendering of the prosthetic arm."             src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-ece6a0239051ad1055e93c4632bf8748_jhu_fig1_w1.jpg"></td>
<td vAlign=top><em class=caption>Figure 1. A 3D rendering of the             prosthetic arm.</em> </td>
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<h3>Interfacing with the Nervous System</h3>
<p>Simulink® and the VIE were essential to developing an interface to the       nervous system that allows natural and intuitive control of the prosthetic       limb system. Researchers record data from neural device implants while the       subjects perform tasks such as reaching for a ball in the virtual       environment. The VIE modular input systems receive this data, and MATLAB®       algorithms decode the subject’s intent by using pattern recognition to       correlate neural activity with the subject’s movement (Figure 2). The       results are integrated back into the VIE, where experiments can be run in       real time. </p>
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<td vAlign=top><a             href="http://www.mathworks.com/company/newsletters/news_notes/2009/images/jhu_fig2_wl.jpg"><img             alt="Figure 2. A MATLAB application developed by the University of New Brunswick, used to record motion data for pattern recognition."             src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-ece6a0239051ad1055e93c4632bf8748_jhu_fig2_w1.jpg"></a></td>
<td vAlign=top><em class=caption>Figure 2. A MATLAB application             developed by the University of New Brunswick, used to record motion             data for pattern recognition. Click on image to see enlarged             view.</em> </td>
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<p>The same workflow has been used to develop input devices of all kinds,       some of which are already being tested by prosthetic limb users at the       Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago. </p>
<h3>Building Real-Time Prototype Controllers</h3>
<p>The Signal Analysis and Controls modules of the VIE form the heart of       the control system that will ultimately be deployed in the prosthetic arm.       At APL, we developed the software for these modules. Individual algorithms       were developed in MATLAB using the Embedded MATLAB™ subset and then       integrated into a Simulink model of the system as function blocks. To       create a real-time prototype of the control system, we generated code for       the complete system, including the Simulink and Embedded MATLAB       components, with Real-Time Workshop®, and deployed this code to xPC       Target™.</p>
<p>This approach brought many advantages. Using Model-Based Design and       Simulink, we modeled the complete system and simulated it to optimize and       verify the design. We were able to rapidly build and test a virtual       prototype system before committing to a specific hardware platform. With       Real-Time Workshop Embedded Coder™ we generated target-specific code for       our processor. Because the code is generated from a Simulink system model       that has been safety-tested and verified through simulation, there is no       hand-coding step that could introduce errors or unplanned behaviors. As a       result, we have a high degree of confidence that the Modular Prosthetic       Limb will perform as intended and designed. </p>
<h3>Physical Modeling and Visualization</h3>
<p>To perform closed-loop simulations of our control system, we developed       a plant model representing the inertial properties of the limb system. We       began with CAD assemblies of limb components designed in SolidWorks® by       our partners. We used the CAD assemblies to automatically generate a       SimMechanics™ model of the limb linked to our control system in       Simulink.</p>
<p>Finally, we linked the plant model to a Java™ 3D rendering engine       developed at the University of Southern California to show a virtual limb       moving in a simulated environment. </p>
<h3>Clinical Application</h3>
<p>Given the powerful virtual system framework, we were also able to       create a useful and intuitive clinical environment for system       configuration and training. Clinicians can configure parameters in the VIE       and manage test sessions with volunteer subjects using a GUI that we       created in MATLAB (Figure 3).</p>
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<td vAlign=top><a             href="http://www.mathworks.com/company/newsletters/news_notes/2009/images/jhu_fig3_wl.jpg"><img             alt="Figure 3. A MATLAB based user interface for configuring prosthesis parameters."             src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-ece6a0239051ad1055e93c4632bf8748_jhu_fig3_w1.jpg"></a></td>
<td vAlign=top><em class=caption>Figure 3. A MATLAB based user             interface for configuring prosthesis parameters. Click on image to             see enlarged view.</em> </td>
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<p>Clinicians interact with this application on a host PC that       communicates with the xPC Target system running the control software in       real time. A third PC is used for 3D rendering and display of the virtual       limb. During tests of actual limbs, we can correlate and visualize control       signals while the subject is moving.</p>
<h3>Looking Ahead</h3>
<p>Using Model-Based Design, the Revolutionizing Prosthetics team has       delivered Proto 1, Proto 2, and the first version of the VIE ahead of       schedule. Currently we are in the process of developing a detailed design       of the Modular Prosthetic Limb, the version that we will deliver to       DARPA.</p>
<p>Many of our partner institutions use the VIE as a test bed as they       continue to improve their systems, and we envision the VIE continuing as a       platform for further development in prosthetics and neuroscience for years       to come. Our team has established a development process that we can use to       rapidly assemble systems from reusable models and implement on prototype       hardware, not only for the Revolutionizing Prosthetics project but for       related programs as well. </p>
<p>As we meet the challenge of building a mechatronic system that mimics       natural motion, we strive to match the perseverance and commitment that       our volunteer subjects and the amputee population at large demonstrate       every day. </p>
<p><em>Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited.</em></p>
<div class=callout>
<h3>Mimicking Nature on a Deadline</h3>
<p>Developing a mechatronic system that replicates natural motion and       preparing it for clinical trials in just four years, as mandated by DARPA,       requires breakthroughs in neural control, sensory input, advanced       mechanics and actuators, and prosthesis design.</p>
<p>State-of-the-art prosthetic arms today typically have just three active       degrees of freedom: elbow flex/extend, wrist rotate, and grip open/close.       Proto 1, our first prototype, added five more degrees of freedom,       including two active degrees of freedom at the shoulder (flexion/extension       and internal/external rotation), wrist flexion/extention, and additional       hand grips. To emulate natural movement, we needed to go far beyond the       advances in Proto 1. </p>
<p>Proto 2, which was developed as an electromechanical proof of concept,       had more than 22 degrees of freedom, including additional side-to-side       movements at the shoulder (abduction/adduction), wrist (radial/unlar       deviation), and independent articulation of the fingers. The hand can also       be commanded into multiple highly functional coordinated “grasps.”</p>
<p>The Modular Prosthetic Limb—the version that we will deliver to       DARPA—will have 27 degrees of freedom, as well as the ability to sense       temperature, contact, pressure, and vibration.</p>
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<td vAlign=top><a             href="http://www.mathworks.com/company/newsletters/news_notes/2009/images/jhu_sidebar_wl.jpg"><img             alt="Proto 2 hand grasps."             src="http://www.chemapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wpid-ece6a0239051ad1055e93c4632bf8748_jhu_sidebar_w1.jpg"></a></td>
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<td vAlign=top><em class=caption>Proto 2 hand grasps. Click on image             to see enlarged view.</em> </td>
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<div class=resources>
<h3>Products Used</h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/matlab/">MATLAB®</a>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/rtw/">Real-Time         Workshop®</a>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/rtwembedded/">Real-Time         Workshop® Embedded Coder™</a>
<li><a         href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/simmechanics/">SimMechanics™</a>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/simulink/">Simulink®</a>
<li><a href="http://www.mathworks.com/products/xpctarget/">xPC         Target</a> </li>
</ul>
<h3>Resources</h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.jhuapl.edu/" target=_blank>Johns Hopkins         University Applied Physics Laboratory</a>
<li><a         href="http://www.mathworks.com/model-based-design/?s_cid=1109_delg_mbd_283671">Model-Based         Design</a> </li>
</ul>
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